By Pat Mertz Esswein | Kiplinger.com – Mon, Jun 10, 2013 7:45 PM EDT
Not
all metropolitan areas in America have seen a housing rebound -- yet.
These cities with populations of 250,000 or more experienced drops in
home prices for the year ending March 31, 2013. But as you’ll see, signs
of recovery are showing in some of these lagging markets. Prices come
from Clear Capital, a provider of
real estate data and analytics.
Many of the cities still have an
oversupply of homes on the market and high unemployment rates. More
important, half or more of all distressed sales
(which include foreclosures as well as short sales) are bank-owned
properties (REOs), according to CoreLogic's February data. Bank-owned
properties sell with the greatest discount from market value, further
depressing overall home prices. Another drag on a rebound: By and large,
these cities haven’t attracted out-of-town real estate investors the
way other cities such as Phoenix, Atlanta, and Las Vegas have.
(U.S. benchmark statistics and
details: One-year change in home prices: 6.8%. Median home price:
$177,500. Change in price since 2006 peak: -33.8%. Unemployment rate: 7.5%, seasonally adjusted; 8.1%, non-adjusted. City-specific unemployment rates to follow are non-adjusted. Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 296 households,
or 0.24%. Distressed sales: 23.4%. Sales, supply and other market data
come from regional associations of Realtors and multiple-listing
services. Foreclosure rates are from RealtyTrac. Home prices are from
Clear Capital. Distressed sales statistics are from CoreLogic.)
12. Baton Rouge, La.
One-year change in home prices: -4.1%
Median home price: $115,500
Change in price since 2006 peak: -13.7%
Unemployment rate: 5.5%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 306 households (Average)
Distressed sales: 18.4%
Prices in Louisiana’s capital bumped up after Hurricane Katrina,
peaked in early 2009 and then retreated, largely as a result of the
recession. Now the market has picked up again as buyers have regained
jobs and confidence. In March, sales rose by 16.9% and inventory fell by
almost 10% from the year before. With a months' supply of 5.3, buyers
and sellers enjoyed almost equal advantage. Sellers found buyers in an
average of 92 days but received an average of 97% of their original list
price.
11. Greensboro-High Point, N.C.
One-year change in home prices: -4.3%
Median home price: $80,000
Change in price since 2006 peak: -23.5%
Unemployment rate: 9.9%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 264 households (High)
Distressed sales: 20.3%
As in the Charlotte metro area, buyers in Guilford County are bucking a tepid economy and high unemployment rate
and pushing up the rate of home sales -- which rose 30% compared with
last year. Guilford County’s supply of homes stands at 5.1 months -- a
balanced range. Homes took an average of 103 days to sell -- not
terribly fast -- but sellers received 94% of their listing price.
In any metro area, supply varies by community and price category.
Sellers at the high end of the market (homes over $500,000) must still
be patient, with almost two years of supply. In March, the months'
supply in the county’s communities ranged from a low of 5.9 months to a
high of 24 months.
10. Charlotte, N.C.
One-year change in home prices: -4.4%
Median home price: $118,000
Change in price since 2006 peak: -20.4%
Unemployment rate: 9.4%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 236 households (High)
Distressed sales: 20%
The housing market
in Mecklenburg County, a major financial center, appears to be turning
around, even though unemployment is still a problem. Pent-up demand
boosted sales by 29% over the past year, and sellers have more leverage
over buyers: Months’ supply is only 3.2 months (down from eight months
last year), and there’s about half as much inventory as last year. On
average, sellers received 95% of their asking price, although their
homes took 103 days to sell.
9. St. Louis
One-year change in home prices: -4.8%
Median home price: $63,000
Change in price since 2006 peak: -45.8%
Unemployment rate: 8.0%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 292 households (Average)
Distressed sales: 28.6%
St. Louis’s economy is stable, but it’s not growing, and population growth is flat. Even so, most signs indicate that its real estate
market is moving in the right direction, says Donna Zerega, of the St.
Louis Association of Realtors. In St. Louis County, the most populous
county in the metro area, had four months' supply of real estate in
March (down from seven months’ supply a year ago). Total listings of
homes for sale fell by one-fourth from a year ago, while the number of
sales rose 14%. Homeowners waiting for a better market began to list
their homes for sale, but they still couldn't be aggressive with their
pricing.
8. Atlantic City, N.J.
One-year change in home prices: -5.2%
Median home price: $172,700
Change in price since 2006 peak: -42.3%
Unemployment rate: 14.8%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 355 households (Low)
Distressed sales: 25.8%
There's not much good news in
Atlantic City's housing market, with the economy still stinging from the
effects of Hurricane Sandy. Corinna Haberkern,
of Century 21, says New Jersey’s housing market has been slow to
recover and that "they're still putting the pieces back together." A
high rate of unemployment
undercuts buyer demand, and the number of homes sold fell 5% from the
year before. Average days on the market is 123. In February, the metro
area staggered under 21 months' supply of homes for sale, despite a 9%
decline in listings from the year before.
Buyers are more motivated now, Haberkern says, because they recognize
that "prices are as low as they will go" and they want to lock in a low
mortgage rate. And sellers are seeing more foot traffic. But they are
holding out for higher prices and won't move unless they must. Plus,
Haberkern says, the area is likely to experience another wave of
foreclosures in the coming year, which depresses average selling prices.
7. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Pa.
One-year change in home prices: -5.8%
Median home price: $82,250
Change in price since 2006 peak: +22.7%
Unemployment rate: 10.2%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 610 households (Low)
Distressed sales: 25.9%
In the first quarter of 2013, it appeared that the market in this
northeastern Pennsylvania metro area had turned the corner. Sales rose
by 12.6% in Scranton (Lackawanna County) from the year before; pending
sales (homes under contract, but not yet closed) increased 20.7%.
Scranton and Wilkes-Barre have the second-most elderly population in the
country, but their affordable downtowns are enjoying an influx of young
professionals and empty nesters, says Wayne Evans, president elect of
the Greater Scranton Board of Realtors. That’s boosting home sales. He
notes that the local economy, though improving, isn't "out of the woods
yet," but expects that it will be more positive by the end of 2013.
6. Green Bay, Wis.
One-year change in home prices: -7.9%
Median home price: $181,500
Change in price since 2006 peak: -19.2%
Unemployment rate: 7.6%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 264 households (Average)
Distressed sales: 3.1%
Despite a brutal winter, real estate
agents in northeast Wisconsin agree that the home market is showing
signs of new growth. “We have had as close to a normal spring sales
season as we have had since 2007, when we had motivated buyers and
sellers in the market at the same time," says Jim Smith, of W.E. Smith
Realty.
A supply of 6.9 months in March still somewhat favored buyers. The
number of homes sold is down 7.2% from the year before, but sellers
received an average of 97% of their original list price -- a healthy
sign. Smith thinks buyers are beginning to realize that they need to
take advantage of low prices and interest rates while they can.
5. Manchester-Nashua, N.H.
One-year change in home prices: -8.0%
Median home price: $200,000
Change in price since 2006 peak: -40.6%
Unemployment rate: 6.0% (Manchester only)
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 351 households (Low)
Distressed sales: 35.9%
In New Hampshire's largest metro area, "things are improving, but
let's not break out the punch bowls yet," says Bill Weidacher, president
of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors. In March, the number of
homes sold grew by 9.6% from a year ago, and they sold in an average of
94 days. Inventory remains tight, and the number of new listings coming
to market actually fell by 4.5% from last year -- all good news for
sellers. But prices remain depressed by lack of job growth and the
steady, though declining, rate of foreclosures.
4. Trenton-Ewing, N.J.
One-year change in home prices: -8.1%
Median home price: $129,500
Change in price since 2006 peak: -43.2%
Unemployment rate: 7.6%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 385 households (Low)
Distressed sales: 14.4%
Trenton is the capital of New Jersey and the county seat of Mercer
County. The total inventory of homes in Mercer County fell by nearly
one-fourth in March from a year ago, but with 9.5 months' supply, the
market still favored buyers. Even so, buyers weren’t house-hunting in
droves -- the number of homes sold fell by 7% from the year before.
Homes took an average of 109 days to sell, but at least sellers received
an average of 96% of their original list price.
There was more activity in the more desirable and prosperous suburban
markets, such as West Windsor, where the schools are considered a good
alternative to pricier Princeton.
3. Winston-Salem, N.C.
One-year change in home prices: -10.9%
Median home price: $95,050
Change in price since 2006 peak: -26.0%
Unemployment rate: 8.8%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 241 households (High)
Distressed sales: Not available
Buyers are sitting in the catbird’s seat in Winston-Salem, with 11.3
months' supply in March. The inventory of homes for sale has barely
budged in the past year. But things are looking up for sellers: The
number of homes sold increased by more than one-third compared with a
year ago, and more than half of listings sold within 90 days.
2. South Bend, Ind.
One-year change in home prices: -11.7%
Median home price: $62,000
Change in price since 2006 peak: -43.3%
Unemployment rate: 10.2%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 478 households (Low)
Distressed sales: 25.5%
Despite the decline in prices over the past year and a high unemployment rate, the housing market
in South Bend has begun to recover. Buyers have plenty of homes to
choose from, with 7.3 months' supply in March (down from 8.9 months last
year). Sales rose by 6% so far this year compared with last year.
Investors (even some foreign ones) are active here, but not nearly to
the same extent as in cities like Phoenix and Atlanta, says Quinn
Thurin, with Cressy & Everett Real Estate. Sellers received just 86%
of their list price over the past year. That suggests that they
continue to price their homes too high for the market (95% or higher
means list prices are on target).
1. Montgomery, Ala.
One-year change in home prices: -14.5%
Median home price: $86,000
Change in price since 2006 peak: -45.8%
Unemployment rate: 7.9%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 517 households (Low)
Distressed sales: Not available
In Alabama's state capital, the supply of homes for sale in March was
8.9 months, well above the four to six months’ inventory that
represents a balanced market between buyers and sellers. The number of
homes sold grew by 22.3% in the past year, but homes lingered on the
market for an average of 115 days (in a normal market, homes sell in 60
days, on average). Demand for homes this year should be bolstered by a
slowly improving economy, especially in Alabama’s automotive
manufacturing industry, according to University of Alabama economists.
By Brendon DeSimone | Zillow – Mon, Jun 17, 2013 6:16 PM EDT
Remember the 10 percent down payment on a house? After virtually disappearing for years, it's back.
